For what they’re worth (not much), my Oscar predictions:
- BEST PICTURE: 12 Years a Slave. No, Gravity. No, 12 Years a Slave. No wait, Gravity. Oh, let me find a coin to toss. OK, 12 Years a Slave.
- BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity.
- BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine.
- BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club.
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave.
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club.
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE, Frozen.
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave.
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle.
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG, “Let it Go,” Frozen.
A month or so ago, American Hustle had the momentum, but that seems to have faded. Jennifer Lawrence could still win the best supporting actress prize, and if the Oscars were awarded in January she would have, but now I think Lupita Nyong’o is more likely. The best American Hustle will do is best original screenplay, as the screenplay categories have become a sort of consolation prize dating back to Pulp Fiction.
Gravity will win the most Oscars, snatching up nearly all the technical awards. It has a real chance at winning best film. Momentum appears to be with 12 Years a Slave, but I understand that Gravity is much loved in Hollywood.